8:29:56 
2025-03-04 
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Adaptivity is threatened by global warming and deforestation.
The Earth’s climate system is highly complex, with its key components—the ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation—closely interconnected. Changes in one element can trigger widespread effects throughout the system. While these components exhibit some resilience and can absorb certain fluctuations, climate and Earth-system research suggest the existence of critical tipping points. If these thresholds are crossed, the climate system could shift rapidly into a different state.
Tipping points in the climate system are believed to interact, potentially triggering cascading effects. Two significant global tipping points are the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Continued global warming could substantially weaken the AMOC, disrupting the oceanic conveyor belt that transports warm water to northern latitudes. This would alter temperature distribution across the Atlantic, which, in turn, could impact the Amazon region. Changes in Atlantic temperatures would influence the atmospheric water cycle, leading to shifts in precipitation patterns that could further destabilize the rainforest ecosystem.
Analysis of Residual Pollen and Carbon
Exactly how the AMOC and the Amazon are interconnected as systems, and how marine circulation affects the Amazon region, have not yet been extensively researched. A group of researchers led by Dr. Thomas Akabane and Prof. Dr. Christiano Chiessi from the University of São Paulo has now analyzed changes in the vegetation of the Amazon region. With their international team, they have analyzed pollen and carbon residues representing the past 25,000 years from a marine sediment core taken from the mouth of the Amazon River.
This analysis provides the team with a detailed glimpse into the past of one of the most species-rich ecosystems on Earth. The data show how the vegetation, along with wet and dry periods, has changed during the climate events of the last ice age, called Heinrich Events, when the AMOC was drastically weakened. The researchers found, in particular, a dramatic decline in rainforest vegetation in the northern part of the Amazon region.
Close Connection Between Atlantic Circulation and the Amazon Ecosystem
“The study is the result of a long-term German-Brazilian cooperative project, which began in 2012 with a joint expedition of the Research Vessel MARIA S. MERIAN in the estuarine area of the Amazon. Our data show that the Amazon ecosystem was able to adapt in the past to changes in the patterns of precipitation that resulted from weakened Atlantic circulation. But a weakening of the AMOC in the future occurring simultaneously with an increase in deforestation could threaten the stability of this important global system,” says Dr. Stefan Mulitza of MARUM.
Further studies employing climate and vegetation models indicate that a weakening of the AMOC under present-day conditions would have an effect on Amazon vegetation similar to that which it had during the past ice age. “The models have shown us that the AMOC need not completely collapse in order to have an effect on the rainforest. The northern areas of the Amazon region are massively impacted under mere moderate changes in the AMOC,” explains Dr. Matthias Prange of MARUM.
The results illustrate how complex the global system is. “Driving processes at high latitudes, like the melting of Greenland ice, can have a substantial effect on the tropics. Such long-distance influences often have severe regional effects, very often for people who are only minimally responsible for causing climate change,” adds Prof. Dr. Gerrit Lohmann of AWI.
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